Should we read anything into the gyrations of the Dow Jones industrial average? Should we take heart when the market starts trading higher? If the experts are right, it's just a sucker's rally.

As Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini told Steve Forbes in this interview, the extent of the contraction might have been wound back but we are still in for a long hard haul. Instead of a L-shaped recession, it's going to be U-shaped (even though when I watch the stock fluctuations, I do wonder whether it looks more like a W). And he warns that unemployment in the United States will continue to rise, and might even hit 11%. So even if there is growth, it will still feel like a recession.

Roubini says there are a number of reasons why it's going to be long and slow. First, earnings are going to come in lower than expected because of the weak economy with deflationary forces for the next two years. Secondly, some banks will be found to be insolvent. And finally, some emerging markets are likely to be caught up in a fully fledged financial crisis.

AS George Soros says, we should not take too much heart from the rallies because the US economy is still in very bad shape. "It's a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around," Soros told Bloomberg. "This isn't a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime."

Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services has told reporters not to expect a bull market for quite a few years. It's just going to be a steady progression of volatility. He says the market "is going to trade in a trading range with very volatile swings….for at least the next three to five years."

"We do not see any potential to go into a new bull market."

If you're planning to play the market now, make sure you have nerves of steel.