I have always talked about how Sarbanes-Oxley has turned out to be a licence to print money for accountants. The last time I did that was here. The question is whether that would continue if or when the US enters a recession. And there are signs that the bonanza might be recession proof.

First to the question of the recession. At the end of last year, Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University and co-founder of the S&P Case/Shiller house-price index told The Times that that the chances of a big recession were very high and with futures contracts pointing to losses of around 35 per cent in some areas, such as Florida, California and Las Vegas, there was a likelihood that the housing recession would go on for years. "American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion [£503 billion]. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars' worth of losses," Shiller said.

Last week, we had former fed chairman Alan Greenspan telling a conference that the chances of a recession were more than 50 per cent and New York state governor eliot spitzer warning that bond and credit woes afflicting Wall Street could turn into a "financial tsunami".

So how will this affect accountants?

Not much, according to IOMA's 2008 CPA Firm Statistical Analysis Reference Handbook, details of which are published here saying that 2008 will be just as good a year for beancounters as 2007. What about the downturn and looming tsunami? The accounting firms are running so lean that it won't really matter. The reality is that accounting firms have continued to exist and grow by virtue of their ability to survive downturns. They'll just keep raking in the fees. "Despite the predictions about change in the U.S. economy, CPA firms are well-positioned to thrive because they have honed their management practices with an eye towards greater efficiency," according to the Handbook's editor Susan F. Sandler.

Part of that involves moving away from billable hours, something that would be hit hard in a recession when companies are going broke and spending less. Instead, they will come up with alternative fee structures. And accounting firms are now more prepared to "fire" clients. That would include the ones that would suffer in a recession.

Still, any recession would have an impact. Even if accounting firms are insulated, smaller firms could go under.