In case you've spent the last few months under a rock, things are looking very bad for the rest of this year. As Forbes reports, the US Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book shows that the US economy has actually deteriorated this calendar year and it's unlikely to get any better. And as Bloomberg tell us, Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner warns that the US recession is getting worse and there's next to no hope of things getting better in the next few months. That suggests the economic medicine now being handed out is being overwhelmed by the disease.
The Beige Book says there could be a recovery in 2010. Yeah right, don't hold your breath. Economist Nouriel "Dr Doom" Roubini has told Time Magazine says that in a perfect world and assuming the stimulus packages being handed out around the world actually work, we are looking at a two-to-three year global recession. That means we mightn't be out of this hole until 2012, and that's only if everything goes according to plan.
Roubini says there is a 33% chance of a depression. The Wall Street Journal puts it at 20%. Now the other way of looking at it is that there is an 80% chance of avoiding it. But given that just about everyone has so far under-estimated the carnage, that might be optimistic.
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