Bailout blues
Filed in archive markets by leon on September 25, 2008

US president George Bush has moved to heavy Congress into running with the $700 billion package but the entire thing needs to be put in some sort of perspective. It's just not going to work.
Columnist Robert Samuelson compares it to Richard Nixon's 1971 wage-price freeze. And ironically, both came from administrations that were supposedly committed to "free markets". He warns Congress might need to exercise caution.
Samuelson writes: "Like wage-price controls, Paulson's plan is no panacea. Banks, hedge funds, private equity funds and others are trying to reduce risk by "deleveraging" - selling stocks and bonds to raise cash, increase capital and cut their own debt. The rush to cash is a hallmark of financial crises. But what makes sense for one may be ruinous for all. Heavy selling depresses prices; lower prices then increase losses, deplete capital, prompt more selling and heighten fear. At best, Paulson's plan might preempt this spiral by allowing investors to unload their least attractive securities.
"But it wouldn't automatically stimulate new lending, revitalize "securitization" or prevent more 'deleveraging.' Time is needed. The rescue is being constructed so hastily that it may include all manner of flawed provisions: too much power for the Treasury secretary; authority for bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages. Congress faces a wrenching dilemma, imposed on it by financial markets and Paulson. If it dawdles, it may invite the panic that Paulson has brazenly predicted. But if it acts quickly, it may create a monster whose full implications emerge only with time."
Economist Paul Krugman has a similar warning.
"Paulson insists that he wants a "clean" plan. "Clean," in this context, means a taxpayer-financed bailout with no strings attached - no quid pro quo on the part of those being bailed out. Why is that a good thing? Add to this the fact that Paulson is also demanding dictatorial authority, plus immunity from review "by any court of law or any administrative agency," and this adds up to an unacceptable proposal.
"I'm aware that Congress is under enormous pressure to agree to the Paulson plan in the next few days, with at most a few modifications that make it slightly less bad. Basically, after having spent a year and a half telling everyone that things were under control, the Bush administration says that the sky is falling, and that to save the world Americans have to do exactly what it says now now now.br />
"But I'd urge Congress to pause for a minute, take a deep breath, and try to seriously rework the structure of the plan, making it a plan that addresses the real problem. Don't let yourself be railroaded - if this plan goes through in anything like its current form, we'll all be very sorry in the not-too-distant future."
And that's the fundamental issue. Unless the ones who created the crisis are made to bear the cost, it's going to happen all over again.
Samuelson goes back in history, let me go back further. The tough regulations introduced after the Great Depression kept the US market on an even keel for decades. This is the price we now pay for unregulated financial innovation.
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George Bush bailout 2007 2008 bailout+blues hedge+funds george+bush
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