Beware of black swans
Filed in archive risk by leon on September 05, 2007
Have finished reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's thought-provoking book The Black Swan. All about the futility and danger of making and relying on forecasts.
Basically, Taleb argues that we are cognitively ill-equipped for forecasts, which is why so many of them end up going wrong. Taleb's "black swans" are big events that are completely unpredictable and that change everything. The 9/11 attacks and the rise of Google are two examples.
I have written an extensive review and discussion of the issues raised in his book here.
And the fundamental point is that we have to treat all forecasts with some scepticism. Nothing happens until it happens.
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The Black Swan Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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