How will global warming shape our world 20 years from now?
There will be massive changes.
First, it will be a world where companies will have to pay for the right to pollute. That means there will be a lot more costs to internalize that are not around today. We might also expect companies to pay more for other natural resources, like water.
Secondly we can expect a carbon trading market worth trillions of dollars. In one sense, it will be very much like other commodity markets like oil and coal. But the big difference will be that it will cover all businesses and every part of the economy. Don't expect it to be restricted to utilities or big carbon emitters like aviation companies.
We can also expect new companies to emerge, outfits that know how to harness new technologies and innovations for energy. These companies will shape business, very much in the same way that Google and Microsoft have done.
Litigation over damage from climate change will be common. And insurers might not want to write certain types of business. We should also get ready for a market in "catastrophe bonds" designed to offset risk.
All these risks will be worked into asset prices, and climate change will be used by analysts to evaluate companies.
There will still be high emitting companies. But they will be subject to more scrutiny than usual.
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