India and China have transformed the world. But will India one day overtake China as the world economy's driving force?
Commentator Chris Devonshire-Ellis certainly seems think so and his arguments are pretty solid.
First, India has 800,000sq km more usable arable land than China, and ten times the natural fresh water resources. This means its agricultural and textile industries would have a stronger base. And by 2030, he says India will have overtaken China in terms of population, and almost certainly in GDP growth rates.
"With double the amount of available workforce, a younger population and a consumer economy of its own of about half a billion people in its new middle class, India's tortoise against China's hare will have caught up significantly,'' Devonshire-Ellis says. "When that happens, the bets for who reaches the finishing line as top dog by 2099 will look very different than they do today."
He has a point although my only reservation is India's ramshackle infrastructure. Try driving from Delhi to Agra and see for yourself. Indian roads are a disgrace and until that's fixed, India will lag behind China.
Still, the global financial crisis has changed everything for China and India. Before the GFC, India was the world's service center and China was its factory. Now they are being seen as equals and that will transform the global economy. Certainly, it will speed up America's demise as a superpower. It's a point I examine in my piece here.
no comment untill now