With Conrad Black this week filing a bid for bail until his appeal of fraud and obstruction convictions is heard, there are signs what the grounds of appeal might be.

Black is expected to follow the lead of ex-Hollinger International vice-president Peter Atkinson who is asking to be freed on bail pending his appeal which will be built around at least four arguments.

First is the claim that judge Amy St. Eve was wrong giving the jury the so-called "ostrich" instruction, when he claims there was no evidence the defendant was wilfully blind to dodgy financial instructions.

He will also question the prosecution's labelling of certain transactions as non-compete payments, and cast doubt on his participation in a mail fraud scheme. Another argument will focus on whether the money actually belonged to Hollinger.

If that all sounds desperate, it's absolutely right. But expect this to drag on for some time. And if Black is granted bail pending an appeal, you can expect he will stay out of jail for some time. Even if he is buying time and staving off the inevitable.