While some say the global economy is going to pick up and the signs are looking good, the train is a long way down the track. In fact, the optimism might even be dangerous.

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has told Reuters that the US, Britain, Spain and Ireland won't recover all their ground until the beginning of 2011. Why is that? Because the worst recessions of the past were those rooted in banking crises and the other bad ones were those that happened in many countries at once. This one has both problems happening at once.

The Economist warns that the optimism is not only misplaced, it can be dangerous.

The danger is that economists and politicians confuse hopeful signs as the beginnings of a strong recovery when all they really show is that the rate of decline is slowing. Secondly, it can lull them into a sense of complacency where they won't make hard decisions on crunch issues like fixing the banks and ruinous deflation.

So what to make of all the glimmers of hope? Recovery is still some time away and there's work to be done.