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markets
by leon on November 24, 2008

The big question is whether the downturn and recession will be a replay of 1929. There are different views on it.
The most alarming comes from Paul B Farrell at MarketWatch. in his piece, Farrell gives 30 reasons why we will be in the Great Depression for three years with such lead indicators as soaring consumer debt, no overight over Paulson's $700 billion package, the outgoing administration hamstringing the prospective Obama government with enormous liabilities, state, municipal, corporate pensions losing hundreds of billions on derivative swaps, the big three automakers near bankruptcy and US unemployment set to reach 8%. It's a sobering read.
Add that Obama warning that the worst may be yet to come and millions of jobs could be lost next year.
On the other side of the fence, Daniel Gross at Newsweek says the concerns might be misplaced.
"Ironically, the differences between the two eras can be summed up in a few sound bites. The world of 1929-33 was one that lacked shock absorbers, like Social Security and deposit insurance, to insulate people from economic disaster. In the 1930s, some of the world's largest economies-Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan and Italy-were run by leaders hostile to the very notion of market capitalism. Today, U.S.-style market capitalism is under assault from self-inflicted wounds, and Germany, Italy and Japan (Russia, not so much) are working with the United States to cope with a common problem. Back then, we were Cursed with a feckless Federal Reserve, and a wealthy Treasury secretary, Paul Mellon, saw the downturn as a force for good."
Of course, the most important difference is that back in the Great Depression, Americans had to wait several years before an incompetent president left office. Now, they only have to wait eight weeks!
Permalink: Do we get depressed?
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