As reported here, the International Monetary Fund says the recovery has begun. It's just that it will be slow and unpredictable. And it's gone so deep that it will affect supply and demand for years to come.

What that means is that the long term future is uncertain and we need to wind back the massive debt that got us into this mess in the first. There's no sign any of that's happened. As Warren Buffett writes in the New York Times, the United States runs the risk of becoming a banana republic economy unless something is done to rein in the debt when markets pick up again.

That's given rise to speculation that we might be looking at a double dip recession caused by rising inflation. As this report says: "The greenback has fallen about 10% against a basket of currencies since stocks bottomed in early March. At the same time, the price of oil is up almost 50%. Soybean prices are up nearly 25% while sugar futures have surged nearly 65%. And the price of copper has skyrocketed about 75%.

"If that trend continues, it's possible that these price increases will eventually be passed on to you and me. That could prompt the Federal Reserve to jack up interest rates in an attempt to cool off inflation."

If that were to happen, we could well be in for the double dip.

As economist Nouriel Roubini writes, we could be looking at a "phantom recovery". And as he says, any uptick in the market was way ahead of the real economy. Which means there will have to be a correction, making a double dip more likely.