Conrad Black insists last week's verdict was just an aberration and that he will win ("The prosecutors lost most of their case and we move on to the Court of Appeals and expect to dispose of what is left of these false charges") but as always, his powers of arrogant self-delusion are without limit.

The reality is that the man who once ran the world's third biggest media company is now likely to spend a long time with drug dealers, sex offenders and arsonists in what's likely to be low or medium-security US prison. The length of his sentence will determine where he ends up. "The longer the sentence, the more likely he'll serve it with real criminals," University of Toronto professor Mohammad Fadel told the Toronto Star.

One thing's for sure, it won't be a walk in the park. So how long will Black get? The media has been talking about 20 to 35 years. That's because the convictions carry a maximum penalty of 35 years in jail, if served consecutively, and prosecutors say they will be asking for him to be put away for between 15 and 20 years.

But Wayne State University Law School professor Peter Henning says it's more likely to be six to eight years and explains why in his White Collar Crime Prof Blog. He also warns us to expect Black's lawyers to ask the court to take into account the factors that led President Bush to commute the sentence of I. Lewis Libby on his obstruction charge. Have your barf bags ready!

As a foreign citizen charged in the US, Black won't be eligible for a cushy federal work camp and he will probably be sent to one of the Big Houses within a 500 mile radius of his home in Toronto. For a list of likely places, go to the National Post.

The great irony of this case is that Black cannot apply to serve his time in a more amenable Canadian prison. He blew that chance long ago when he revoked his Canadian citizenship to get a spot in the British House of Lords. And he is not welcome back in Canada, reports the International Herald Tribune.