Japan is limping its way out of the recession. BusinessWeek reports that the world's second biggest economy has just reported its first quarter of growth since January-March 2008, joining the economies of France, Germany and Korea all returning to positive growth.
It's impossible to read too much into this and it's certainly no time to celebrate. Much of the growth in Japan is coming from the Government's stimulus packages and the effect of those will be wearing off in the weeks ahead. Secondly, Japan's growth will depend very much of the condition of its trading partner, the United States, which is not in great shape.
Another point is that unemployment in Japan is now at a six year high. For every 100 people looking for jobs, there are only 43 jobs available and experts say Japan's real unemployment is more than double the official figure because it doesn't take into account the "hidden jobless", people who are taken on as surplus labor. Under the Japanese system, the government offers financial support to employers who place on leave, train, or transfer their employees because of underperforming business.
That's why economists are saying we need to wait and see. "When you look at the numbers, the contrast between external demand and internal demand is as clear as night and day. With payments falling, it's really hard to expect individual spending to hold up," Daiwa Institute of Research economist Hiroshi Watanabe told Associated Press.
We need to wait and see what happens next quarter to get any idea whether this recovery is for real. The global economy depends on it.
no comment untill now