Chat with our sales team
Whole Network Most Recent TOP10 Accounting Compliance Ethics SOX

 

Keeping up with the Joneses: bubbles and herding behavior

Filed in archive markets by leon on November 20, 2007

34801864.jpg

The subprime meltdown is the latest example of flawed logic that resulted in a bubble and house of cards. I mean, what were these people thinking? You have people with no proof of income being able to take out a mortgage equal to 100 per cent of the appraised value of a home? And a finance industry that arms itself with all sorts of creative financing that zero in on the short-term prospects of high-risk borrowers. And a system system that makes itself completely dependent on the ability of high-risk borrowers to make their mortgage payments. So what do you expect?

But then, this faulty logic is there in all bubbles. In the dot com bubble, for instance, there was enormous money from IPOs in start-ups that not only had never made a profit. Some hadn't even made any revenue. Why did investors, goaded by market forecasts from IT research firms, such as IDC, Gartner and Forrester Research, rush to buy almost anything even vaguely associated with the Internet, regardless of valuation? What was going on in their brains that made them ignore huge losses and pay 100 times expected earnings?

The same applies to the madness and illusion leading up to the 1929 Crash when the Dow Jones Industrial average skyrocketed 250 per cent in just two years. As John Kenneth Galbraith was to write later: "Men have been swindled by other men on many occasions. The autumn of 1929 was, perhaps, the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves."

That's what attracted me to a interesting paper out of Stanford University, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Fuqua School of Business. Interesting and alarming.

The paper, Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts, found that what investors fear the most is not the risk of a loss. It's the risk that they may do poorly relative to their peers. When it comes to certain kinds of technology, keeping up with the Joneses drives investment decisions.

Cut through the algebra and academic language, and the findings make sobering reading. Relative wealth is everything, the researchers say, and turns investors into sheep.

"This externality induces a herding incentive: agents choose to make investment decisions that are similar to those of the rest of the population to avoid being poor when their cohort is wealthy," they say. "If agents are sensitive to the wealth of others, making different investment decisions than the crowd increases the risk of their relative wealth. The riskier the technology, the greater is agents' concern for being left behind, and the stronger the herding effect."

In other words, investors fear being poor when everyone around them is rich. Particularly if they are living in communities where real estate, day care and just the general cost of living is high.

The researchers found that investors tend to herd around high-tech investments that have the potential to revolutionize the entire market and promise a big upside. In most cases, they are likely to go bust but investors crowd in thinking all they have to do to make money is hit the jackpot. And when that crowding happens, the price of the assets they hold become inflated.

Still, there is one consolation to this sort of behavior. When things go belly-up, as they inevitably do, investors can turn around and say it's not that bad. After all, everyone lost their shirt. In that case, keeping up with the Joneses has an upside. Misery loves company.


Advertisement


Permalink: Keeping up with the Joneses: bubbles and herding behavior
Tags: herding  behavior  bubbles  Technological  innovation  and  real  investment  booms  and  busts  Peter  DeMarzo   

Trackback: http://www.creative-weblogging.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.pl/102507



Advertisement


Advertisement


CW ToolbarInstall
RSSrss   | See all blog subscribe options
Googlegoogle   |   What is RSS?
Yahoo!yahoo
AddthisAddThis Feed Button
BloglinesBloglines
Newsletter

Use our search feature to look for other interesting posts

Just this blog Whole network
Magazines.com, Inc.
 
  • Would you like to have a new interactive marketing channel for your company? Learn more about Sponsored Blogs with Creative Weblogging. See how we helped companies like Weblin and cellity reach their goals.
  • Would you like to reach millions of blog readers every day? See you banner on hundreds of blogs with TierOneAds? Stay in control measuring conversion in real time. Register now.
  • Would you like to make more money blogging? Use TierOneAds a new platform that allows you as a blogger to set your prices per impression. Register now.
  • Do you have a blog with more than 50k page views from the US? Let us market your blog and earn great fix payments and bonuses.
  • Would you like to see your text link here? Let us know!
Advertisement
Book yours here.



  • Other blogs in the same channel in the Creative Weblogging Network

Advertisement -
Book yours here..






Advertisement - Book yours here..
 
Tagcloud: Accounting boards of directors Compliance corporate crime corporate governance corporate reputation Ethics events executive pay litigation markets regulators risk shareholder activism SOX Sponsored Blog strategy