Investors might be cheering with US Federal Reserve chairman declaring that the recession is over, but they should take a deep breath and wait. It's not over yet.

If the recession is well and truly over, why is the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warning that unemployment could rise to 10% in its member states? That's 57 million people out of work. For the ordinary person in the street, that means the recession is not over.

And if the recession is over, as Bernanke claims, why are delinquent credit card defaults on the rise? That's being driven by unemployment.

Still, many see right through all the talk from regulators and politicians. As reported here, a Spectrem High Net Worth Advisor Insight survey found that most don't believe it. The recession, they say, won't be over until there is a fall in unemployment. That's not going to happen for some time which suggests the market will continue to underperform.

More to the point, it means people will continue losing their jobs while politicians put the spin on the economy, claiming the crisis is over. Don't kid yourself, it's not over yet.