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Oil price futures
Filed in archive markets by leon on January 21, 2009
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Don't believe oil prices, they're set to soar.

At the moment, they have fallen below $35 a barrel in the face of weakening consumer demand and corporate earnings heading down the toilet.

But look carefully at the futures contracts. According to the contract, oil will be trading at around $64 in December 2010, up about 83% on today's prices. So what's going on? Does the market really expect the economy to have recovered by then? Or is it something else?

Goldman Sachs analyst Jeffrey Currie expects a "swift and violent rebound" in energy prices in the second half of the year, reports Bloomberg, with production being cut back and the market hoarding oil to cash in on the price rise. As Bloomberg reports: "Morgan Stanley hired an oil tanker to store crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, joining Citigroup Inc. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in trying to profit from the contango, two shipbrokers said in reports earlier today."

And of course, there is an obvious reason why oil prices will rise: peak oil. As Currie told a London conference, the industry's fundamentals are pointing towards that.

"Thirty dollar oil reflects the same imbalances that got us to $147 oil. The problems haven't gone away. We still believe the day of reckoning is to come ... this is not 1982-1983 all over again. The supply picture's radically different, the demand picture's radically different. The key difference is that today there are no large-scale next generation projects that are going to save the world. Commodity demand is exponentially higher than it was."

If you haven't already, it might be time to invest in that bike.



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Tags: oil  prices  futures  contract  2007  price+futures  openads+delivery  wall+street 
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