Keep an eye on the oil price over the next few weeks.
Oil prices have tumbled with US figures showing unemployment has hit 9.8%, well on its way to double digits. That's on the demand side. More people out of work means fewer people buying things which means less demand for fuel.
That's the demand side. What's become more important now is the supply side with the West's negotiations with Iran about the OPEC member's nuclear program going nowhere. The secret facility outside the Iranian city Qom has left everyone nervous and new polls show that Americans support US military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
It also has Israel worried with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's repeated threats to wipe the Jewish state off the map. Israel already has nuclear missiles and it is not inconceivable that Israel could attack as a form of defense if this issue is not resolved soon. As Senator Evan Bayh writes in Politico: "Neither Israel nor the international community can afford to take even a small risk that Iran might acquire and misuse a nuclear weapon."
Or as the Seeking Alpha blog puts it, this is something that should have us all worried: "It all comes down to how Israel reacts. So far, it has said nothing, and that's worrisome. It might be willing to give diplomacy a chance, but probably not much of one."
Because of that, we can expect a spike in oil prices.
no comment untill now