So bankers forecast that the recession will end in the third quarter of 2009. Big deal!! Don't crack open the champagne yet. The next few years will be hard. If you expect it will be anything like the boom years, you're kidding yourself.

First, the market will be a completely different beast. US News blogger Rick Newman predicts that oil companies will be hit hard by consumers driving less and soaring fuel prices, that Ford and GM will fall out of the top 10 and many companies in the banking, retail, autos, and insurance sectors will be a lot smaller. Oh yeah, and Wal Mart will become number one again because frugality is here to stay.

Welcome to the new normal. Justin Fox at Time has some sobering forecasts. People will spend less for years to come, we are in for a long period of bear markets with no more debt-powered growth, there will be lots of volatility with a series of downturns (think of it as rows of Ws), higher energy prices driven by demand out of China and India and higher taxes to pay for health costs and stimulus policies of the Obama administration.

Yes, the economy will be out of recession. But for many investors and ordinary income earners, it won't feel that way.