With a US recession looming, the question is how bad is it going to get?
Certainly a recession is now an even money bet, according to a Bloomberg news survey, with the US housing industry in trouble, retailers suffering their worst January since 1970 and five of the top six automakers in the US including Ford and Toyota, posting a drop in US sales in January.
Morgan Stanley puts the chances of a recession at 71 per cent, reports Reuters. But there are signs it's already started.
Some 57 per cent of Americans think the US is already in recession, reports the Dallas Morning News.
In a note here, investment bank UBS says all signs suggest the US is already in recession. "Data are increasingly suggesting that a recession has already begun. Reports are mixed enough to keep open the possibility that growth is merely slowing or stalling. And the indicators showing recession-like weakness could still show a quick reversal. However, historically, by the time a recession has been unambiguous in the data, it has typically been well under way. Meanwhile, the momentum has been toward weakening, even in the indicators not yet signaling recession. We expect the data to turn more consistently weak in coming months, with additional declines in employment, rising unemployment, and clear-cut weakening in consumer spending and investment."
In the meantime, economists are arguing over how bad it's going to be.
Some are forecasting a short and shallow one. On the other side of the fence, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey says it will be more painful than previous downturns, pretty much the result of a perfect storm of people being hit with everything from a housing downturn to excessive borrowing.
Watch this space.
no comment untill now