So the International Monetary Fund has given the US economy, and by implication the Obama administration, a big tick of sorts in its latest report. The IMF projects that the economy will contract 2.5% in 2009 but grow by a modest 0.75% in 2010. It's not huge but at least it's headed in the right direction. The IMF praises the administration's fiscal stimulus but still concedes that the balance of the risks is tilted towards the downside.

Downside indeed. Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini who predicted the financial crisis has told Bloomberg that the optimists are getting "ahead of the curve" and that recovery will be "weak, anemic, subpar". Any growth is going to be very slow.

The IMF's report card needs to compared to what's happening in the real world. Capital One says credit card default rates have risen to 9.4% and American Express says defaults have risen to 10.4%. Meanwhile, Reuters reports analysts saying that Bank of America Corp is experiencing "horrific" loan losses and may set aside $46 billion in loan loss provisions this year.

There might be a recovery next year. But it will so slow and weak that few will notice.