I know this is risky after the last post, but what the hell. What can we expect in 2009. The truth is, no-one really knows. Still, there are some forecasts worth looking at.
A sobering prediction from Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini, which you can watch on this video published The New Republic. He predicts a deeper recession with the meltdown continuing for another 12 months and US unemployment likely to hit 9%. He also warns that any recovery in 2010 and 2011 might well be shallow.
My former colleague Steve Bartholomeusz says 2009 will feel worse, certainly in the first half with more losses, more capital raisings, more government bailouts and more credit-rationing. The global system will restructure itself for a more conservative era. But things might pick up in the second half as government spending around the world kicks in.
"The trillions of dollars now being committed to blunting and truncating the deterioration in the global economy, and shoring up the global financial system, will have some effect. The psychological impact of the inauguration of Barack Obama also shouldn't be discounted. He embodies optimism. It wouldn't be in the least surprising if, towards the latter part of the second half of 2009, markets (supposedly forward-looking) were signalling a weak conviction that the worst is behind us and that 2010 will see a return to growth. The markets, and then the real economies, will eventually stabilise and turn. It is probable that 2009 will be a better year for the markets than 2008 and that by its end it might be possible to say that a recovery in real economies is also underway, or at least in sight."
That might be, but don't expect things to start booming again for some time. In comparison to the last few years, the bulls are a long way off.
no comment untill now