If anyone thinks recovery is just around the corner, they should read this speech from OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. He paints a very grim picture.

With trade flows expected to fall by 9% in 2009 and foreign direct investment inflows to further contract, after shrinking by about 20% in 2008, Gurría warns of a massive impact on society. The meltdown is turning into a jobs and social crisis and the question is are we prepared?

Gurría says: "Our latest projections (to be released officially tomorrow) indicate that the unemployment rate in the OECD area could approach 10% by 2010 compared with 5.6% in 2007. This implies that the crisis could swell the rank of the unemployed in the OECD by about 25 million people, by far the largest and most rapid increase in OECD unemployment in the post-war period. And the job crisis is spreading rapidly around the world. The International Labour Organisation estimates that world-wide unemployment could increase by 40 million people by the end of this year ... Our OECD projections indicate that the ongoing contraction in economic activity will worsen this year, before recovery gradually builds momentum through 2010. The uncertainties attached to this bleak outlook are exceptionally large, while the risks remain firmly inclined to the downside."

He says all the stimulus packages won't help unless they are backed up by appropriate employment and social policies like safety nets and measures to prevent more layoffs.

Bleak times ahead.