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US to lose Aaa rating?
Filed in archive risk by leon on February 5, 2010
US to lose Aaa rating?



US debt is running out of control with the Us House of Representative voting to increase the US government's borrowing limit by $1.9 trillion, taking the debt load up to a mind-boggling $14.3 trillion.

With the US economy going nowhere fast, how the hell will this be repaid? It's unsustainable.

Which is alarming because we now have reports that ratings agency Moody's is on the verge of downgrading the USA's credit rating from the perfect Aaa ranking.

Steven Hess, senior credit officer in the sovereign risk group with Moody's in New York was blunt. Speaking to Reuters, he said the problem was that the US economy might not grow as strongly and that would put the rating in danger. "Right now we are semi-optimistic that the U.S. will regain its previous dynamism, but if it doesn't, then we have to think about what that implies for government finances," Hess said. "The implications would not be good if the U.S. were in for anemic growth for some time to come because the government could have problems for revenue growth."

If the US is downgraded, it will have a seismic effect on the global economy. It's not that the US is about to default. But it sends a signal to every other economy that no one is safe.

But then, this might have to be seen in context. As Vincent Fernando at Business Insider points out, countries all over the world, including Luxembourg, Britain and France now risk losing their top rating. What does that mean? Simply, it tells us that the world is now sinking under a pile of debt. Governments everywhere are now more leveraged.

The worrying part is that the US, which held the world economy together for so long, is now lumped into that group. The world is now a more dangerous place.

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